Juan David Hernandez Leal

Juan David Hernandez Leal - Economics PhD Candidate

Hi, I am Juan David Hernandez Leal, an Economics PhD Candidate at the University of California, San Diego.

My research studies how financial institutions, technology, and policy shape credit access, repayment, and borrower outcomes. I am especially interested in financial inclusion, debt repayment, borrower communication, and the role of AI in financial services.

Current projects use operational data, surveys, and field implementation to understand how borrowers interact with repayment systems and how institutions can design outreach that is effective, transparent, and respectful.

Research

My current work focuses on AI-assisted repayment conversations, debt recovery and mediation, and financial inclusion datasets that connect CRM systems, call records, payment plans, surveys, and repayment outcomes.

  • Financial inclusion
  • Credit access and repayment
  • Debt collection and mediation
  • AI and automation in financial services
  • Field experiments and administrative data

Pre-doctoral publications

  • When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks (with Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas and Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand)
    Abstract

    Central bank intervention typically entails the use of multiple and possibly non-linear policies. In this paper we introduce a dynamic Tobit model embedded in a Vector Autoregression in order to identify simultaneous monetary shocks. Our method is easily estimated using only least squares and a maximum likelihood function. Also, impulse-responses are carried out as in the traditional time-series setting and can be applied in a structural framework. In simulation exercises we show that, as policy covariance grows, our method increasingly outperforms a benchmark case of estimating policy functions separately. We find significant differences when estimating our method in emerging market economies.

Work in progress

  • Intergenerational Persistence of Intimate Partner Violence (with Camila Navajas-Ahumada, Frances Lu, and Matthew Collins)
    Abstract

    We study the intergenerational persistence of intimate-partner violence (IPV) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Women who report that their fathers physically abused their mothers are 25.9 percentage points more likely to experience IPV. Place and ethnicity explain one third of the persistence variation, with no additional variation explained by other observed socioeconomic factors. Women who report that their mothers were IPV victims are more likely to find IPV acceptable, which is not explained by a rationalization of their own victimization. IPV persistence is stronger in ethnicities with lower IPV prevalence, emphasizing the role of parental IPV relative to its cultural salience.

Teaching and Mentoring

Teaching Assistant, MGT 160: Experiments in Firms
University of California, San Diego, 2024–2026

I have supported MGT 160 for two academic years, working mostly with Professor Anya Samek and Erik Johnson, and previously supporting Professor Sally Sadoff. In this role, I help students design, evaluate, and communicate field experiments in business and policy settings. My teaching focuses on turning broad ideas into testable research questions, designing credible experiments, choosing meaningful outcomes, thinking through ethical and logistical constraints, and communicating results clearly.

  • Led TA sessions and in-class activities on experimental design, randomization, behavioral tools, ethics, and applied causal inference.
  • Provided feedback on individual research proposals and group pilot projects, with emphasis on feasibility, measurement, and clarity.
  • Developed exam review materials, grading rubrics, assignment guidance, and answer booklets to make expectations transparent.
  • Helped students connect course concepts to real examples from firms, public policy, behavioral science, and field implementation.

CV

Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, San Diego, in progress.

View my CV.